A socialist CAN win the White House, but not Bernie Sanders in 2020. Here's why.

So, we need to have a talk. Bernie Sanders vs Donald Trump in 2020. Here's what I think on this quasi-apocalyptic showdown. As someone who is supposed to get out there and talk and write about the 2020 race, make predictions and look to history as a reference...this moment, the possibility of Trump v Sanders just totally stumps me. I didn't think Trump had a chance in 2016, and I've had to recalibrate my understanding of Republican voters and the non-voters who made his election possible. As such, I understand Bernie Sanders to be part of the same phenomenon. Is it possible that Bernie can win while all the establishment Democrats are freaking out and saying he’ll destroy Democrats down-ballot in 2020?? This exact same thing happened with Trump and the GOP, and we know how that's turned out.

Yes, I think it is. But there are some caveats.

This is NOT reflective of my political opinions or preferences, but my view of the American voting public is that they favor a big and active government that works for them. If a Republican voter tells you they favor small and limited government, they are most likely lying either to you or themselves. Probably themselves. I think the popular myth of FDR, "ending the Depression" and getting people back to work through public programs and shored up with Social Security, in my opinion, succeeded in its goal of reshaping what American's expect from government and how young voters *thought* of the government until the bank bailouts of 2008. With the public understanding of what the government does, who it works for what taxes are..totally shattered by the bailout and War on Terror...Trump and Sanders became inevitable.

The main caveat is that I still think America is a right of center country. It can go hard populist, but culturally remains (and will remain) what we consider "conservative"...or, perhaps nationalist. American identity and entitlement to what the benefits of being an American are, is very real. That's how you get a President that defends Social Security and entitlements while pushing for a massive border wall.

You have to choose between quasi-socialist/safety net/public welfare state politics and ideas like the dissolution of capitalism and borders

I do not think that a Bernie Sanders candidate can win by being with intersectional young leftists want him to be. Julian Castro's bid to push the Democratic field into open border policy is a death knell to the credibility of policies like Medicare For All. I ABSOLUTELY think American's would happily force the passage of Medicare For All, Social Security expansions and all sorts of goodies from the government. But never under the pretense that being an American a free for all. You don't see this is in the mythical Nordic countries of Bernie Sanders' campaign.

I'm reminded of my first experience doing grassroots work back in 2014-2015, door knocking and doing online petitions for things like Social Security reform. I saw something I didn't really attempt to understand till years later. Respondents and commentators on this were WILDLY focused on one thing: fraud. It's mostly unfounded. Immigration does not threaten Social Security in a meaningful way, but that's almost all I heard. You can either be indignant about that sentiment, or you can grapple with the reality on the ground.

I happen to be personally very open to policies like Universal Basic Income, and things like decriminalizing unauthorized border crossings...but I have zero belief that you can implement both and maintain political and societal stability.

You have to choose between quasi-socialist/safety net/public welfare state politics and ideas like the dissolution of capitalism and borders. Americans will sign off on big MEGA spending, but not if they don't trust the integrity of the system. Call me a wishful thinker but I think this goes beyond immigration and diversity. People want to know what it means to be an American. This was part of Andrew Yang's $1000 a month pitch, that it was a birthright of sorts for your citizenship in the richest country on earth. You're entitled to this because of our innovation and prosperity. But it falls apart when there is not an understanding of who is in, and who is out. Yes, there's an ugly element to this, but it's also how normal people understand what a country is. It's made much more complex when entitlements are part of the picture.

If Bernie Sanders returns to his cultural positions pre-2016 (look them up) I think he could win. But I do not think he will do that, and therefore, I think Trump will get a second term.